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Friday Daily Commentary For Subscribers
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Natural Gas Falls To One-Month Low After Third Straight Triple Digit Storage Injection; Speculation Losing The Battle To Reality Right Now, But Prices Likely Nearing Floor; Gas Demand To Rise Slightly Today As Heat Builds Into The Mid-Atlantic; Fourth Straight Triple Digit Build Likely This Week, But The Streak Should End Next Week
Friday, May 16, 2025 This Daily Commentary is available to current Premium Membership Subscribers. Subscribers gain access to these 1500-3000 word commentaries 5 times per week as well as access to my realtime Oil & Natural Gas Portfolio. To learn more about subscribing and helping to support the site, please click HERE.
In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report covering May 3-9, the EIA announced Thursday morning that inventories rose by +110 BCF. This was 5 BCF smaller than my +115 BCF projection but was still 27 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average. On a temperature-adjusted basis, supply/demand imbalances averaged 1.2 BCF/day loose, or bearish, versus the 5-year average. However, this is an improvement and is actually the least bearish that imbalances have been since late March. It also means that only 8 BCF or the week’s bearishness was due to fundamentals with the remaining 19 BCF being driven by mild temperatures. With the injection, natural gas inventories rose to 2255 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average widened to +57 BCF. Storage levels remain -375 BCF lower than last year. And as shown in the Figure to the right, storage levels are at the third highest to-date in the last 5 years, and are generally right in the center of the 5-year range.
Three out of the five storage re...
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